![]() ![]() The time in hours from the model initialization time is in gray text. Individual forecasts of the 51 Euro and 31 GFS ensemble members are the lines color-coded by the wind speed in knots they predict for TD 17 red colors correspond to a category 1 hurricane. Track forecasts out to five days for Tropical Depression 17 from the 06Z Saturday run of the European ensemble model (left) and the 12Z Saturday run of the GFS ensemble model (right). ![]() EDT Saturday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded TD 17 to Tropical Storm Philippe, with top sustained winds of 40 mph. The next name on the Atlantic list is Philippe. TD 17 had extensive showers and thunderstorms (convection) on Saturday afternoon, with spin quite evident on satellite, and it appears TD 17 could become a tropical storm by Sunday, if not sooner. Conditions are generally supportive for TD 17 this weekend, with warm sea surface temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius (84 degrees Fahrenheit), a moist mid-level atmosphere (relative humidity around 60 percent), and light wind shear overall (5-10 knots). A system brewing for several days well west of the Cabo Verde Islands became Tropical Depression 17 at 11 a.m. The hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season of 2023 continues to churn out tropical cyclones. Top rainfall totals from #Ophelia as of 11:30 a.m.:ĥ.59" East Carolina University /8JGcSUijiD- Matthew Cappucci SeptemTropical depression forms in central tropical Atlantic Totals were increasing quickly by midday Saturday, as shown in the embedded post below. The heaviest 24-hour rainfall amounts reported by the CoCoRaHS network as of Saturday morning were over eastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia, near and just north of Ophelia’s center. A band of 2- to 4-inch storm totals can be expected along and north of Ophelia’s track, including the Interstate 95 corridor from Washington, D.C., to New York and extending to Cape Cod. Another large area of rain loosely associated with Ophelia but focused along the frontal zone to its north – much like the predecessor rain events that often occur north of landfalling hurricanes – extended across much of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York, and southern New England. Ophelia’s heaviest rains on Saturday afternoon were concentrated over northeastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia, pushing toward the Delmarva area. Sewells Point, VA (Norfolk area): 3.67’ storm surge (12:06 a.m. Times are in EDT.Ītlantic City, NJ: 2.43’ storm surge (7.18 a.m. Below are some of the highest storm-surge values observed through Saturday afternoon, together with storm-tide amounts (storm surge plus astronomical tide, shown in values above mean low low water or MLLW). Saturday afternoon’s high tide produced the highest storm tides of the event from Delaware to New Jersey, with mainly moderate flooding, but the tide was generally 0.5 to 1 foot lower than predicted. #ophelia /V8dfYDS0AC- Marcel Ligabo September 23, 2023Īlong the coast, storm surge from Ophelia was generally coming in toward the lower end of the predicted ranges. Storm surge all the way in Washington/North Carolina from Pamlico river. At 14th Street in Greenville, Green Mill Run rose quickly on Saturday afternoon to 10.8 feet, approaching major flood stage. The Pamlico crested at 6.98 feet at Washington, the 11th highest crest there in records dating back more than 110 years. Moderate to major flooding was occurring along and near the Pungo and Pamlico Rivers in North Carolina, where the surge forced inland from Ophelia was combining with runoff from heavy rain. (Image credit: NOAA/National Weather Service) Composite radar image of Ophelia at 2:16 p.m. EDT Saturday, the National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on Ophelia, declaring it post-tropical. By Sunday afternoon, as Ophelia approaches a pre-existing frontal zone to its north and is eventually shunted back offshore, it is predicted to be a depression-strength post-tropical cyclone. Ophelia’s top winds will continue to spin down as the system moves into southeastern Virginia overnight. ![]() Top sustained winds were down to 45 mph, and these were likely limited to a small area near the center, as most nearby stations were reporting sustained winds below tropical storm strength. EDT, Ophelia was centered about 60 miles southwest of Norfolk, VA, moving north at 13 mph. ![]()
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